Updated 4 weeks ago
If [outcome] wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Genta Kojaon Oct 2, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-13
Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election on September 13, winning 59% of the vote and securing the most votes of any gubernatorial candidate since 1972. Koja's victory brought an LDP-backed governor back to office for the first time in 12 years and marked a shift in policy, as he accepts the controversial relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma air base within the prefecture, reversing Tamaki's opposition stance.
Before Okinawa gubernatorial election winner? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Genta Koja: 99%, Denny Tamaki: 64%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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