Updated 2 weeks ago
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and [outcome], then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: Before Oct 16, 2026, Before Oct 1, 2026, Before Sep 30, 2026, Before Sep 29, 2026
Before the result
As it stood on Sep 18, 2026
Kalshi prices Starship Flight 14's orbital debut at 95% before October 16, but shows material slip risk: only 67% odds it launches before September 29, versus SpaceX's current September 28 target. The 2% probability before September 23 reflects that the original September 22 date is now off the table following regulatory delays. Markets are comfortable with early-October as a backstop but pricing in a weeks-long delay from the current target, consistent with SpaceX's history of schedule slippage on developmental missions.
Before SpaceX Starship 14th launch? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Before Oct 16, 2026: 99%, Before Oct 1, 2026: 99%, Before Sep 30, 2026: 99%, Before Sep 29, 2026: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
