Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

The 7% December 2026 probability reflects a low but non-negligible risk that recent intelligence warnings have priced in. U.S. intelligence assesses Putin could attempt a limited attack on a NATO ally to test resolve, while U.S. CIA Director Ratcliffe warned Russia in August against escalating conflicts with Baltic states. However, Critical Threats assessments from August conclude a full-scale NATO invasion is highly unlikely near-term, and analysts expect gray-zone tactics and covert incursions rather than conventional invasion by year-end—suggesting the market has properly discounted a worst-case scenario while hedging for lower-threshold provocations.

• Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27, 2026— criticalthreats.org · 2026-08-27
• US intel assesses Putin could launch attack aimed at testing NATO unity— cnn.com · 2026-08-07
• Russian Threats to NATO's Eastern Flank: Scenarios, Strategy, and Policy for European Security— belfercenter.org · 2026-02-05
• Germany warns Russia could attack NATO by 2029 as intelligence threat assessments mount— foxnews.com