December 31Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
Updated 5h ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket prices Russia's full capture of Kostyantynivka by December 31 at 43% while near-term deadlines (August 31, September 30, October 31) total just 17%, reflecting the disputed reality on the ground. Russia claimed full capture on July 3, but Ukrainian forces and ISW assessments confirm Russian units hold only pockets within the city amid ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks and drone interdiction, with incremental gains continuing into late August. The market's concentration in December signals trader consensus that full consolidation, if achieved, requires months of attrition fighting rather than the imminent collapse Moscow declared.
As of September 7, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? are: December 31: 43%, October 31: 11%, September 30: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
