Greater Manchester mayoral election winner?
Updated 2 months ago
If [outcome] wins the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Labour
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-31
Bev Craig of Labour won the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on July 30, 2026, with 66.32% of second-preference votes on a turnout of 25.14%, confirming what markets had priced at 98% the day before. The by-election was triggered after incumbent Andy Burnham's disqualification following his election to Parliament in the Makerfield by-election.
Before Greater Manchester mayoral election winner? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Labour: 99%, Reform UK: 2%, Conservative: 2%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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