Daniel BilzerianFL-06 Republican nominee?
Updated 1 month ago
If [outcome] wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 FL-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Randy Fine
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-18
Randy Fine secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 6th Congressional District on August 18, 2026, defeating a crowded field including business executive Manuel Asensio, conservative activist Aaron Baker, social media personality Daniel Bilzerian, and Army veteran Charles Gambaro. Fine, the incumbent who won a special election in April 2025, prevailed with approximately 56–57% of the vote, carrying key counties by double-digit margins and advancing to the November general election.
Before FL-06 Republican nominee? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Randy Fine: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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