Updated 1 month ago
If [outcome] wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-25 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Jared Moskowitz
Winner
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-18
Jared Moskowitz won the Florida 25th District Democratic primary on August 18, 2026, defeating progressive challenger Oliver Larkin. Moskowitz, the incumbent two-term congressman, comfortably secured the Democratic nomination in the newly drawn coastal district stretching from Palm Beach to Miami-Dade County, confirming the 92% probability markets had priced the day before.
Before FL-25 Democratic nominee? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Jared Moskowitz: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
