Updated 1 month ago
If [outcome] finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Haley Stevens
Winner
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 5, 2026
Kalshi prices Haley Stevens at 85% to finish 2nd in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, betting she'll overtake Abdul El-Sayed via mail-in ballots after he leads by 8 points with early votes counted. El-Sayed has dominated in-person and Election Day voting, but Stevens holds a mail advantage; Mallory McMorrow trails at 3%, making the real contest who finishes 2nd once provisional and mail ballots are tallied.
Before Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Haley Stevens: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
