Updated 1 month ago
If Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers has [outcome] Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-23
Phoebe Bridgers' Lost Weekend delivered well above the 18,000 first-week equivalent unit threshold that markets had priced at 99% the day before. The album earned 124,000 equivalent album units in the United States during its debut week, marking her best sales week ever and confirming what was overwhelmingly expected.
Before Lost Weekend: First Week Album Equivalent Units resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Above 15K: 99%, Above 35K: 99%, Above 3K: 99%, Above 115K: 99%, Above 21K: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Thresholds up through 120 resolved YES; 130 and above resolved NO — placing the final value in the 120–130 bandon Aug 23, 2026
