Updated 2 months ago
If [outcome] wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Greg Stanton
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-21
Greg Stanton won the Arizona 4th District Democratic nomination on July 21, 2026, defeating progressive challenger Kai Newkirk with 65 percent of the vote. The incumbent and former Phoenix mayor faced criticism over AIPAC support while Newkirk's campaign centered on money in politics and resistance to President Trump. Stanton advances to the general election against Republican Zuhdi Jasser.
Before AZ-04 Democratic nominee? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Greg Stanton: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
