Updated 2 months ago
If [outcome] wins the Sinner vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Rome Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Jannik Sinneron May 16, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-05-16
Jannik Sinner defeated Daniil Medvedev 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 in a rain-delayed semifinal at the 2026 Italian Open on May 16 in Rome, extending his Masters 1000 winning streak to 33 matches. After dominating the first set, Sinner struggled physically in the second as Medvedev mounted a strong challenge, forcing a third set before rain suspended play overnight. Sinner returned Saturday to close out victory in 15 minutes, advancing to the final against Casper Ruud.
Before Sinner vs Medvedev resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Jannik Sinner: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
