How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?
Updated 23m ago
If Graham Platner drops out, but the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 10, 2026
Kalshi prices a special convention at 92%, reflecting the Maine Democratic Party's formal decision Wednesday to replace Graham Platner with a 600-delegate nominating convention by July 27. Platner withdrew following a sexual assault allegation, and party leaders immediately voted for the convention process over a statewide caucus—closing off the 6% alternative. The trailing 4% "Platner remains nominee" and 2% "other process" outcomes are now near-zero bets unless the party reverses course in the next two weeks.
As of July 13, 2026, the Kalshi odds for How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided? are: Special convention: 98%, State committee: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
3pp
3pp2pp
3pp
