New Hampshire
Iowa
South Carolina
NevadaWhich state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
Updated 2h ago
If [outcome] holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 25, 2026
Kalshi prices New Hampshire at 80% despite the DNC officially designating South Carolina first—a massive gap rooted in structural law. New Hampshire's state statute requires its primary occur at least seven days before any other state's, and Republicans are expected to keep New Hampshire early, likely forcing a repeat of 2024 when New Hampshire held an unsanctioned primary ahead of the DNC calendar. The market is betting the state law prevails over party rules.
As of October 14, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary? are: New Hampshire: 87%, Iowa: 7%, South Carolina: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
