Updated 2 months ago
If [outcome] wins the Tiafoe vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Matteo Arnaldion Jun 1, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-06-01
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Frances Tiafoe 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 on June 1, 2026, in a five-hour, 26-minute epic at the French Open Round of 16. Arnaldi staged a dramatic comeback from 1-4 down with a double break in the fourth set, twice surviving match points at 5-4, 30-0 and 40-40 before forcing a tiebreak. His momentum carried into the decider, where he broke Tiafoe twice to reach his first Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Before Tiafoe vs Arnaldi resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Matteo Arnaldi: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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