Reform UK
Count Binface Party
Labour PartyClacton by-election winner?
Updated 2h ago
If Count Binface Party wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 19, 2026
Kalshi prices Reform UK's Farage at 96% to win, reflecting his 2024 landslide (46.2%) and the absence of mainstream party candidates—all major parties boycotted the contest. However, polling shows 67% of UK adults disbelieve his stated reason for resigning amid a parliamentary standards probe over a £5 million undeclared gift, and only 40% of his own 2024 voters believe he has been honest. Count Binface emerges as the symbolic opposition, with a national preference over Farage of 33% to 21% in one poll, though constituency-level voting data remains absent ahead of the 13 August election.
As of July 20, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Clacton by-election winner? are: Reform UK: 95%, Count Binface Party: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Clacton by-election winner? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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