Updated 2 months ago
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Count Binface Party in the 2026 Clacton by-election is 30% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Thresholds up through 25 resolved YES; 30 and above resolved NO — placing the final value in the 25–30 band
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-14
Count Binface achieved just under 27 percent of the vote in the Clacton by-election, confirming the market's "At least 25%" outcome that resolved to YES. The satirist's best-ever parliamentary result topped the 20% threshold that markets had priced at only 54% the day before, marking a strong performance against Reform UK's Nigel Farage, who won with 63 percent.
Before Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: At least 15%: 99%, At least 5%: 99%, At least 25%: 99%, At least 20%: 99%, At least 10%: 90%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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