Updated 3 months ago
If Conor McGregor wins by Submission during the Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 329 fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQon Jul 12, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-11
Max Holloway defeated Conor McGregor via first-round TKO at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, when McGregor suffered a right knee injury just 1:09 into their welterweight bout. McGregor's attempted flying kick in the opening seconds landed awkwardly and forced him to retire from the fight, ending his comeback after more than five years away from competition.
Before Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway: Method of Victory resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
