Updated 4h ago
If [outcome] wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi prices the AfD at 87% to win the most federal seats by March 2029, more than five times the CDU/CSU at 16%—reflecting AfD's 28% polling lead over CDU's 20.8% and a landslide Saxony-Anhalt state win on Sept 6 (43.8% vs CDU 17.2%) amid unpopularity of Chancellor Merz. Yet the market odds may overstate AfD's path to actual power: all mainstream parties maintain a structural "firewall" against coalitions with the AfD, meaning even a first-place finish may not yield government formation without an absolute majority of seats—a high bar requiring smaller parties to fall below the 5% threshold.
As of October 14, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Next German federal election winner? are: AfD: 87%, CDU/CSU: 16%, SPD: 4%, Greens: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Next German federal election winner? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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