Updated 6h ago
If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for the Riemann hypothesis before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 25, 2026
The Kalshi market prices full resolution of the Riemann hypothesis as highly unlikely through 2035, with only 31% probability—reflecting skepticism that even breakthrough developments will yield a complete proof in the near term. This month Anthropic's unreleased Claude model made significant progress by improving a key mathematical lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%, but experts emphasize this solved only a narrow technical piece of the much larger unsolved conjecture, not the full hypothesis itself.
As of October 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for When will the Riemann hypothesis win the Millennium Prize? are: Before 2035: 55%, Before 2032: 45%, Before 2030: 38%, Before 2028: 5%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
When will the Riemann hypothesis win the Millennium Prize? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
