Abdul El-Sayed
Mike Rogers
Mallory McMorrow
Haley StevensMichigan Senate winner? (Person)
Updated 3h ago
If [outcome] wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 8, 2026
Kalshi gives Abdul El-Sayed a decisive 63% chance to win Michigan's open Senate seat versus Mike Rogers' 40%, a 23-point market gap that outpaces recent polls showing El-Sayed ahead by 4-7 points. The gap reflects trader confidence that El-Sayed's consolidation of progressives after his narrow August primary win, combined with Trump's underwater approval in the state (55% say his endorsement hurts candidates), will overcome Rogers' close 2024 finish and traditional GOP turnout strength.
As of September 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Michigan Senate winner? (Person) are: Abdul El-Sayed: 61%, Mike Rogers: 39%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Michigan Senate winner? (Person) is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
3pp
