Aisha WahabCA-14 special election winner
Updated 1 month ago
If [outcome] wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Aisha Wahab
WinnerWhat happened
Resolved 2026-08-18
State Sen. Aisha Wahab won California's 14th Congressional District special election on August 18, 2026, defeating BART Board President Melissa Hernandez by 6 percentage points with 53% to 47% of the vote, confirming what markets had priced at 89%. Wahab will serve out the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's term through January before the two face each other again in November for a full two-year term.
Before CA-14 special election winner resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Aisha Wahab: 99%, Rakhi Israni Singh: 4%, Victor Aguilar Jr.: 2%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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