Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?
Updated 3 weeks ago
If [outcome] formally dissented at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome: No — none of the listed outcomes occurredon Sep 17, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-16
The Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12-0 on September 16, 2026, to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, with no dissents. This resolved the prediction market event to "NO," as no FOMC member dissented, defying market expectations that had priced individual officials like Lisa Cook at 74% to dissent. The unanimous decision marked the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 amid elevated inflation.
Before Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Michelle Bowman: 53%, Christopher Waller: 39%, Neel Kashkari: 17%, Beth Hammack: 14%, Lisa Cook: 14%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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