Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Updated 5h ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 30, 2026
The market heavily prices in no formal US-Iran peace talks by September 30 at 86%, with Switzerland, Pakistan, and Qatar trailing at 6%, 4%, and 4% respectively. This reflects the collapse of the initial negotiation cycle: the 60-day memorandum deadline expired on August 17 with no final agreement, and despite ongoing technical-level mediation on the Strait of Hormuz through Oman and Qatar, neither side has announced a return to formal senior-level talks. Iran continues publicly denying active negotiations with the US, while both sides rely on third-party facilitators rather than direct engagement.
As of September 11, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? are: No Meeting by September 30: 93%, Switzerland: 3%, Pakistan: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
