Updated 1 month ago
Winner: Atletico Madridon Sep 2, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-01
Julian Alvarez remained at Atletico Madrid through the 2026 summer transfer window, rejecting reported moves to Barcelona, Arsenal, and other suitors. The Argentine striker confirmed his decision to sporting director Mateu Alemany on September 1, ending a protracted transfer saga. Markets had priced Atletico Madrid at 89% the day before, and the outcome confirmed the heavy favorite as Alvarez finished the window as a Rojiblancos player.
Before Where will Julian Alvarez transfer? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Atletico Madrid: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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