Updated 3 hr ago
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: Magnitude of at least 5.4, Magnitude of at least 5.2on Oct 4, 2026
Before What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 4, 2026? ended, the final Kalshi odds were: Magnitude of at least 5.4: 99%, Magnitude of at least 5.2: 99%, Magnitude of at least 5.8: 18%, Magnitude of at least 5.6: 2%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
