What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Updated 1 month ago
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-28
Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28, 2026, pivoting sharply from communication opacity to substantive economic framing. The speech centered on persistent inflation concerns and scarce-asset distribution (AI labs, chip makers, energy), with Warsh explicitly naming PCE as his inflation gauge and insisting financial conditions remain "not restrictive"—delivering what markets read as hawkish resolve.
Before What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Bank / Asset 10+ times: 96%, Productivity: 79%, Regime: 69%, Challenge: 67%, Good Morning: 64%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
