US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Updated 1h ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 6, 2026
Market prices a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by September 30 at just 7% and by September 15 at 3%, reflecting a breakdown in talks after the June MoU expired in mid-August without extension. While Trump recently claimed Iran signaled willingness to deal, the 60-day negotiation window closed without agreement, and both sides remain far apart on nuclear concessions and war reparations, leaving a formal Hormuz accord a distant prospect within the deadline window.
As of September 7, 2026, the Polymarket odds for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? are: September 30: 7%, September 15: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
