US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Updated 46m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 11, 2026
Polymarket gives a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31 a 38% implied probability—nearly double the odds for any earlier date—reflecting deep uncertainty about whether preliminary talks can survive current escalation. The June 15 memorandum set a 60-day negotiating window, but Trump declared it "over" on July 10 amid renewed US bombing and tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and enriched uranium disposition; meanwhile, core sticking points on nuclear inspections, asset freezes, and uranium handling remain unresolved. Market pricing suggests dealmakers are giving the diplomatic process more time through year-end despite near-term breakdown.
As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? are: December 31: 35%, September 30: 16%, August 31: 10%, August 18: 5%, August 13: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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