December 31August 31US announces blockade on Iran by...?
Updated 56d ago
What happened
Resolved 2026-07-14
The United States announced on July 13–14, 2026, that it was reinstating its naval blockade of Iran following the breakdown of the interim June peace deal. The reimposed blockade, targeting vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas, went into effect at 20:00 GMT on July 14, with markets having priced the July 31 outcome at a contested 39% the day before.
In ReviewAs of September 7, 2026, the Polymarket odds for US announces blockade on Iran by...? are: December 31: 100%, July 31: 100%, August 31: 100%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
