Updated 2 months ago
Winners: July 31, June 30, June 21, June 15, June 18on Aug 1, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-06-14
Trump announced on June 14, 2026 via his Truth Social platform that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be lifted, part of a preliminary ceasefire agreement with Iran following weeks of direct conflict and negotiations. The blockade, originally imposed in mid-April, had become a central point of contention, and its lifting preceded a formal signing in Switzerland days later, confirming what markets had priced at 80% the day before the resolution deadline.
Before Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: July 31: 100%, June 30: 100%, June 21: 100%, June 15: 99%, June 18: 45%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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