Updated 4 weeks ago
If [outcome] wins the Tiafoe vs Michelsen professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Frances Tiafoeon Sep 8, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-08
Frances Tiafoe defeated Alex Michelsen 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 in the US Open quarterfinal on September 8, completing the biggest Grand Slam comeback of his career from two sets and a break down plus a break down in the fifth set. Tiafoe advanced to his third U.S. Open semifinal, joining Andre Agassi as the only American man to reach three U.S. Open semifinals in this century, with markets having priced him at 59% the day before.
Before Tiafoe vs Michelsen resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Frances Tiafoe: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
