Updated 1 week ago
If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 4, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 67.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: 67° or above, 66° or above, 64° or above, 65° or above, 59° or above, 63° or above, 61° or above, 62° or above, 60° or aboveon Oct 4, 2026
Based on prediction market trading on Kalshi, the most likely outcomes are: 67° or above: 99%, 66° or above: 99%, 68° or above: 11%. These forecasts are derived from real-money trades — traders put their own money behind their weather predictions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probability estimates.
Prediction markets aggregate information from many participants who have financial incentives to be accurate. For weather events, markets incorporate data from weather models, local knowledge, and historical patterns. The price of each outcome reflects the crowd's real-money probability estimate.
PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of weather markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, covering temperature, rain, and snow forecasts for cities including New York, Chicago, Seattle, London, Shanghai, Seoul, and more.
