Moderate Party (M)
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
Green Party (MP)
Liberals (L)Updated 3 weeks ago
Winner: Moderate Party (M)on Sep 17, 2026
WinnerWhat happened
Resolved 2026-09-13
The Moderate Party finished in second place in Sweden's parliamentary election on September 13 with 19.8–19.9% of the vote, confirming what markets had priced at 24% the day before as a clear underdog outcome. The Social Democrats won first with 27.8%, while the Sweden Democrats unexpectedly finished third with 17.7%, below the Moderates despite betting markets suggesting they would hold second place.
Before Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Moderate Party (M): 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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