Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?
Updated 4 weeks ago
Winner: 42-45%on Sep 7, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-06
The AfD received 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt's September 6 election, more than doubling its 2021 result of 20.8%, though falling short of a parliamentary majority with 39 of 83 seats. With markets having priced the 42-45% bracket at 43% the day before, the outcome confirmed the contested expectation.
Before Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: 42-45%: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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