Updated 2 months ago
If Portugal advance past Croatia in the Portugal vs Croatia soccer tie in the Round Of 32 of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Portugal advanceson Jul 3, 2026
WinnerWhat happened
Resolved 2026-07-02
Portugal advanced from the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 by defeating Croatia 2-1 in a dramatic July 2 match in Toronto. Gonçalo Ramos scored a stoppage-time header to break a 1-1 tie, and Croatia's late equalizer was controversially disallowed after technology detected an offside touch by Igor Matanović, eliminating Luka Modrić's final World Cup appearance while extending Cristiano Ronaldo's tournament.
Before Portugal vs Croatia resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Portugal advances: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
