Updated 5 hr ago
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is [outcome] from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Every market on this event is off the board on Kalshi, with no outcome recorded yet. Prices below are the last traded values, not live odds.
Before Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) ended, the final Kalshi odds were: Above 4: 89%, Above 5: 69%, Above 6: 20%, Above 8: 3%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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