Updated 2h ago
If Oct 11, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of October 12, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) are: October 7: 41%, October 5: 26%, October 8: 12%, October 9: 12%, October 10: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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