Updated 4 weeks ago
Winner: September 4on Sep 11, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-04
OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra on September 4, 2026 in a phased rollout, after initially unveiling it to a limited group of organizations on September 3. The general release to ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, and Enterprise users, plus the OpenAI API, came on September 4—a clear underdog win at 34% the day before, while markets had heavily favored the September 3 date at 84%.
Before OpenAI's Astra released on...? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: September 4: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
