Updated 4 weeks ago
If North Dakota St. wins by more than 7.5 points in the North Dakota St. vs Air Force college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: North Dakota State wins by over 1.5 points, North Dakota State wins by over 4.5 points, North Dakota State wins by over 5.5 points, North Dakota State wins by over 2.5 points, North Dakota State wins by over 3.5 pointson Sep 13, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-09-12
North Dakota State defeated Air Force 38-32 on September 12, 2026, in the Bison's Mountain West Conference opener. Quarterback Nathan Hayes threw two touchdown passes and scored on a 17-yard run in the win. The 6-point margin confirmed the over-5.5 spread outcome, with markets having priced NDSU to cover the spread near 50% the day before.
Before North Dakota State vs Air Force: Spread resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: North Dakota State wins by over 1.5 points: 99%, North Dakota State wins by over 4.5 points: 99%, North Dakota State wins by over 5.5 points: 99%, North Dakota State wins by over 2.5 points: 99%, North Dakota State wins by over 3.5 points: 99%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
