Marine Le Pen
Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
David Lisnard
François HollandeMarket analysis
Analysis generated Sep 8, 2026
Polymarket gives Marine Le Pen a 36% outright-winner probability—5 points ahead of Édouard Philippe at 31%—reflecting her commanding first-round lead (34-36% in recent polls) and structural dominance. Yet head-to-head polls show a runoff with Philippe would be razor-thin (50.8-52.5% Le Pen depending on forecast model), explaining Philippe's elevated second-position odds despite trailing by 15+ points in the first round. The fragmented centre-right (Philippe, Attal, others splitting ~40% combined) and left (Mélenchon at 12%) both favor a Le Pen advance; a potential consolidation by year-end could reshape Philippe's path.
As of September 9, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Next French Presidential Election are: Marine Le Pen: 36%, Édouard Philippe: 30%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 13%, David Lisnard: 5%, François Hollande: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Next French Presidential Election is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Next French Presidential Election
Updated 27m ago
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