Updated 1 month ago
Winners: August 16, August 13, August 15, August 14, August 17, August 12on Aug 18, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-12
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed completed their Hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 12 after roughly 120 hours, defeating all four bosses—the Ender Dragon, Wither, Elder Guardian, and Warden—in a single run with 42 total deaths. Markets had priced August 12 completion at essentially 0%, with the top outcome at 24% for August 17; this represents a major upset, as the duo achieved their challenging feat five days earlier than the market's most likely scenario.
Before Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: August 16: 100%, August 13: 100%, August 15: 100%, August 14: 100%, August 17: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
