Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Updated 13h ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 1, 2026
The market prices a 36% chance Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31, compared to just 12% for September 30, reflecting formalization without full operationalization. Iran's National Security Commission approved Article 3 service fees in late August and claims a revenue-sharing arrangement with Oman, yet systematic implementation remains patchy—sporadic $1.5–2 million vessel charges reported but no blanket regime. The near-term gap (September 30 at 12%) suggests traders expect continued delays as the US-Iran standoff persists, with December offering more runway for a structured fee collection framework to crystallize.
As of October 14, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? are: December 31: 17%, October 31: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
3pp9pp
