Updated 1 month ago
If there are [outcome] initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-20
Initial jobless claims came in at 206,000 for the week ending August 15, 2026, confirming what markets had priced at 96% the day before. The reading, down 6,000 from the prior week's revised 212,000, stayed above the 185,000 threshold and beat consensus expectations of 210,000, signaling continued resilience in the labor market despite rising continuing claims.
Before Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, 2026 resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: At least 185,000: 99%, At least 180,000: 99%, At least 195,000: 99%, At least 190,000: 99%, At least 200,000: 94%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has resolved on Kalshi. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Thresholds up through 205000 resolved YES; 210000 and above resolved NO — placing the final value in the 205000–210000 bandon Aug 20, 2026
