Sagal Abdi-Wali
James White
Hamza Chowdhury
Siân Berry
Sarah HaywardHolborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
In ReviewIn ReviewMarket analysis
Analysis generated Sep 18, 2026
Polymarket gives Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali an 85% chance to hold Holborn and St Pancras, significantly outpacing Green Party leader Zack Polanski at 14%. The seat, held by Labour since its 1983 creation and just won by Keir Starmer with an 11,000-vote majority in 2024, remains Labour's to lose, but Greens have shown strength locally, taking 28.8% in May 2026 Camden council elections versus Labour's 38.8%. The betting market appears more confident in a Labour hold than polling models suggest—PollCheck forecasts a tighter 75-25 split favoring Labour—reflecting both historical dominance in the seat and Abdi-Wali's local profile as Camden Council Leader.
Before Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Sagal Abdi-Wali: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Updated 2 hr ago
Every market on this event is off the board on Polymarket, with no outcome recorded yet. Prices below are the last traded values, not live odds.
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