Fed Decision in September?
Updated 36m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 8, 2026
Polymarket prices a 25 bp hike at 53% and no change at 46%, reflecting a genuinely tight call driven by conflicting signals on inflation and employment. Persistent PCE inflation well above the Fed's 2% target and hawkish remarks from Governor Waller on September 3 supported hike pricing, but softer August jobs data on September 4 pulled odds back toward a hold. The July FOMC's 9-3 vote to stay put, with three members dissenting for a hike, underscores the Fed's internal division and leaves both outcomes credible through decision day on September 16.
As of September 9, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Fed Decision in September? are: 25 bps increase: 54%, No change: 47%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Fed Decision in September? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
