Fed Decision in October?
Updated 18m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket prices a 71% hold at the October Fed meeting, with 27% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike—a notable shift after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech two days ago warned that underlying inflation trends have not improved. Warsh's hawkish tone opened the door to potential rate hikes starting as soon as September or more likely October or December, though he deliberately avoided explicit forward guidance, leaving the market to interpret elevated inflation concerns as a signal that financial conditions may not need loosening.
As of September 9, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Fed Decision in October? are: No change: 68%, 25 bps increase: 31%, 25 bps decrease: 3%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Fed Decision in October? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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