Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko
Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale
Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu AllenFalealili 1 By-Election Winner
Updated 3 weeks ago
In ReviewMarket analysis
Analysis generated Sep 18, 2026
Polymarket backs Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai with 53% implied probability in the Falealili 1 by-election held today following the March 2026 bribery conviction that voided the previous election. The race shows a clear leader-and-followers structure, with Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu trailing at 31%, and two further contenders below 15% each. Without contemporaneous campaign reporting or early voting data, market dynamics remain opaque.
Before Falealili 1 By-Election Winner ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai: 100%, Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu: 1%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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