Gavin Newsom
Jon Ossoff
Kamala Harris
Josh ShapiroUpdated just now
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 11, 2026
Polymarket shows a three-way race tightening dramatically: Newsom leads at 18% but has shed 7 points since early June, while Ocasio-Cortez (14%) and Ossoff (12%) have surged on viral campaign energy and nationalized ad spending. Harris has cratered to 7% as major donors signal preference for fresh faces, underperforming even a year ago. The market is repricing around two dynamics—progressive enthusiasm for AOC among younger voters, and trader conviction that Ossoff's engaging stump speeches and Georgia swing-state credentials position him as a viable centrist alternative despite his repeated denials of presidential interest.
Leading
As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 are: Gavin Newsom: 20%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%, Jon Ossoff: 12%, Kamala Harris: 7%, Josh Shapiro: 5%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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