Updated 2 months ago
Winners: June 30, 2026, June 12, 2026on Jul 1, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-06-30
Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the company's most agentic midsize model to deliver performance close to Opus 4.8 at significantly lower cost. The launch confirmed market expectations at 70% the day before and replaced Sonnet 4.6 as the default model across Anthropic's consumer and developer products.
Before Claude 5 released by…? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: June 19, 2026: 100%, June 30, 2026: 100%, September 30, 2026: 99%, June 12, 2026: 88%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
