Nigel Farage
Count Binface
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul
Andrew Pemberton
Matthew BensilumClacton by-election Winner
Updated 32m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 12, 2026
Polymarket prices Nigel Farage at 92% to win Clacton on 13 August, with Count Binface at 6%, reflecting Farage's dominant position as the only major-party candidate after Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens and Restore Britain all boycotted the contest. While a national Ipsos poll found Count Binface preferred over Farage 33%-21%, that Britain-wide measure is irrelevant to local Clacton voters, where Farage won with 46% in 2024 and faces only novelty and fringe challengers. The market outcome hinges entirely on whether Farage wins outright—a near-certain outcome absent a dramatic local scandal.
As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Clacton by-election Winner are: Nigel Farage: 93%, Count Binface: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Clacton by-election Winner is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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